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Market analysis of Marine diesel engines.

Date:2018-03-13 Author: Click:

In the field of Marine power, 90% of large and medium-sized ship diesel engine as the main power device, from past experience, 85% of China's ship with low speed machine to do the host, 3 ton ships need 1 HP low speed move.
Diesel prices generally account for about 10% of the total price of a ship.
As one of the most important equipment in ship power plant, diesel engine plays an important role in China's economic development and shipbuilding industry.
At present, the Marine diesel engine, as an important supporting equipment of the ship, basically buys foreign license and introduces the production of patented technology, and the well-known foreign brands have basically entered the domestic market.
This makes domestic Marine diesel engine production level high, independent research and development capability is low.
As the shipbuilding market is active today, the situation of the ship and other engines and engines has emerged, making the diesel engine and other supporting industries become the "bottleneck" that restricts the development of China's shipbuilding industry.
Through the development of the 12th five-year plan, China's Marine low-speed machine and its supporting industry layout have been further optimized, and the three major shipbuilding bases and Marine diesel engines have been basically coordinated and developed.
The shipbuilding bases in the Yangtze river delta region and the shipbuilding bases in the bohai sea area have been built into the Marine diesel engine production enterprises which are in harmony with the development of shipbuilding industry.
 

Although China's Marine diesel engine industry has achieved a lot, the domestic demand and the horizontal comparison of the industry still have a large gap, mainly reflected in the following aspects.
  

(1) the industry concentration is low and it is difficult to achieve economies of scale. China's Marine low-speed machinery industry is small, with large number of enterprises, decentralized industrial organization structure and low industrial concentration.
At present, our country has 12 million horsepower low speed machine actual production capacity, consists of 9 enterprises;
Under the comparison, the current generation of low-speed machines in the three enterprises, namely, the han state, the dengshan and the STX engines, can be divided into 1,400, 1200 and 9 million horsepower, totaling 35 million horsepower.
Marine low speed machine industry has typical characteristics of economies of scale, small size, low concentration of Marine low speed machine industry in China, it is difficult to achieve economies of scale, enterprise production cost is higher, in the context of the market prices are low, the Marine diesel engine industry profit space is small.
  

(2) relies on license technology, independent research and development ability is weak at present, our country enterprise licence for manufacturing Marine low speed machine are all introduced technology made foreign brands of products, focus on the research and application of manufacturing technology, based on independent research and development design is very weak, also do not have the Marine low speed machine independent development ability;
Chinese enterprises for export and domestic ocean carrier ship matching medium-speed machine enterprise is the basic introduction of patent technology production of foreign brand products, although our country has several series of medium-speed machine independent brands, but its technical level and international advanced level there is a larger gap, has not yet reached the international market, can only be used for inland river ships and coastal ships.
The development of Marine diesel engine industry in China is restricted by foreign enterprises, and the long-term development of Marine diesel engine industry is severely restricted.
 

(3) the two supporting system is not perfect, low in Marine diesel engine spare parts localization rate two rounds of supporting industry long-term development lags behind, the high-end 2 rounds of products have been imported, the second round of matching supply capacity is insufficient.
At present, China's Marine low speed machine two rounds of form a complete set of, not only electronic parts, bearing, cylinder head, cylinder liner as well as intermediates for the most part key parts need to import, supercharger, camshaft, and other products because of a shortage of production capacity or technical level backward wait for a reason, also need to import products from abroad.
The local rate of the second round of low speed aircraft enterprises in China is only 45% ~ 55%.
The import proportion of parts of newly built Marine low-speed machinery factory is higher, and some enterprises' parts or even all depend on the import, and the enterprise itself only carries on the assembly production of the imported parts.
In the second round of the intermediate speed machine, low level parts enterprises repeat production, and the parts with high technical content such as control system are not capable of production.
Live, even the rod, shaft, convex shaft and the supercharger key-module high technical content, enterprise production capacity is insufficient, low level of specialization, production quality can not meet the requirements, quite a few still rely on imports.
The system of Marine diesel engine is not perfect, so the proportion of imported parts is very high, which greatly increases the purchasing cost of Marine diesel engines.
 

Analysis of supply and demand of diesel engine industry in China.

(1) the demand of Marine diesel engines in China will enter the adjustment period under the impact of the international financial crisis, and the world shipbuilding market will turn from boom to bust.
During the 12th five-year plan period, the recovery of the world economy is still full of uncertainties and will be gradually restored in the adjustment. This will put pressure on the recovery of the world shipbuilding market.
In addition, the excess capacity of the shipping market caused by the early construction of the shipping market will be difficult to digest in the short term, and the demand for new shipbuilding will decrease.
During the 12th five-year plan period, world shipbuilding output will not reach the level of the eleventh five-year plan period, and the annual demand is expected to be around 80 million tons.
During the 12th five-year plan period and the 13th five-year plan period, China's total shipbuilding output will be determined by the number of consecutive years.
According to the relevant state departments to formulate our country shipbuilding industry "twelfth five-year" development planning, it is proposed to determine the goal is "to 2015, the shipbuilding industry scale ranks the world's highest, shipbuilding production accounted for 40% of the world".
Thus, even during the 12th five-year plan period, the world's shipbuilding output is not high, and China's shipbuilding output will remain at a considerable level due to its high global share.
The high and low yield of shipbuilding is determined by the demand of the fuel oil machine. The total demand of Marine diesel engine dur
ing the 12th five-year plan period is still to be expected.
"Twelfth five-year" period is the key to achieve from big to strong our country shipbuilding industry, China's shipbuilding industry will undergo a series of transformation and upgrading, great changes have taken place which will drive the Marine diesel engine demand structure.
On the one hand, the development of super-large ships and high-technology and high-value-added ships will bring more demand to intelligent, high-power and large-bore Marine diesel engines.
On the other hand, the Marine engineering equipment manufacturing industry will accelerate its development as a strategic emerging industry, which also puts forward new requirements for high-power Marine diesel engines.
In addition, China's inland river ships actively promote the standardization of ship type, which will also lead to changes in the demand structure of Marine diesel engines.
More importantly, the international maritime organization (IMO) from safety, environmental protection, energy conservation and emissions reduction, such as macro requirements, is gearing up to ship put forward a series of new rules and standards, directly affect the demand structure of Marine diesel engine, IMO Tier II standards currently in effect, 2016 Tier III standard will take effect, this means that during the "twelfth five-year" meet IMO emissions rules of energy saving, environmental protection Marine diesel engine will occupy the mainstream.
 

(2) the Marine diesel engine production capacity is insufficient in the short term, long-term supply pressure is bigger Although Marine diesel engine industry in China developed rapidly in recent years, but still did not keep up with the pace of the development of the shipbuilding industry, Marine diesel engine production capacity is still in the short term can't satisfy the demand of China's shipbuilding industry, Marine diesel imports is still high.
At present, there are 9 low-speed enterprises with real output in China, and the planning capacity of these enterprises is 12 million horsepower.
According to the construction of 650.6 million DWT in China in 2010, the demand for low-speed machines in China is about 18.6 million horsepower, and in theory China needs to import 6.6 million horsepower low-speed machines.
However, the production capacity of Marine diesel engine in our country is limited by various factors, so the import quantity of Marine low-speed machine is much higher than 6.6000hp.
Similarly, the medium speed machine currently has a production capacity of 2200 units, but the current demand is about 4000, and 45% of the medium-speed machines need to be imported to meet the requirements.
Therefore, in the short term, the production capacity of Marine diesel engines is still insufficient, and it still needs to be imported to meet the demand of shipbuilding market.
From the point of global Marine diesel engine production capacity status, at the end of the "twelfth five-year", in terms of Marine diesel engine at low speed capacity, due to the effect of financial crisis, the world shipping market from prosperity to recession, the world market demand leads to the inadequate ship Marine diesel demand drops greatly, the intensified competition for Marine diesel engine in the world market.
South Korea and Japan to seize the Chinese low-speed market, to reduce the price of China's export of Marine low-speed aircraft.
Japanese and Korean Marine diesel engines' low price competition in China has brought a serious impact on China's growing Marine diesel industry, which has taken a large share of the market.
In 2013, nearly 40% of South Korea's low-speed diesel engines were sold to China.
Due to Marine diesel engine in our country enterprise competitive power is relatively weak, helpless in the face of Japan and South Korea low price competition, in order to avoid risk, Marine diesel engine in our country enterprise under the background of 'difficulties, so we have to choose to delay production capacity, which makes the formation process of new production capacity in China is severely hampered.
Therefore, in the long run, China's Marine diesel engine industry supply capacity is still under great pressure.


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